Issue 013  ·  Week of July 6, 2026

CUSMA wasn’t renewed on July 1 — and it remains in force to 2036. Both are true.

Ottawa and Washington published statements about the same meeting that point in different directions. Read together, they change the planning assumption under every CUSMA-preference claim — the same week CBSA’s refreshed verification priorities are due.

§ 1 — The Dashboard

Indicator	Value	Source	Why it matters
CUSMA six-year joint review	Held July 1; no 16-year extension agreed; in force to 2036, renewable any time	GAC / USTR	The planning assumption under a CUSMA-preference claim shifts from “renewal expected” to “in force, under annual review.”
CBSA verification-priorities refresh	Due no later than July 7 (send day); not yet posted at draft time	CBSA	The 2026–27 Departmental Plan names FTA origin verifications a focus area — the enforcement side of the same origin file.
StatCan merchandise trade (May 2026)	Releases Tuesday, July 7 — send-day morning; latest published read is April (June 9)	StatCan	The first macro read on cross-border flows lands the same morning as this issue — next week’s dashboard reads it against the 1.42 dollar.
USTR Section 301 forced-labour track	Canada named; comments closed July 6, hearing July 7; proposed additional duty on the table	USTR	A second US-side documentation pressure running on its own clock, through the same send-day window.
BoC policy rate / next decision	2.25% — held June 10; next decision 2026-07-15	Bank of Canada	No financing relief behind any duty exposure that crystallizes before mid-July.
USDCAD (most recent)	1.4201 USDCAD, July 3 daily average (July 1 was a bank holiday); ≈1.40 mid-June	BoC daily rates	Every landed-cost calculation starts here — a weaker dollar raises the CAD cost of US-dollar payables before any tariff line moves.

§ 2 — The Briefing

Two statements, one meeting — and the operative fact neither leads with

If you’ve been tracking the CUSMA six-year joint review, July 1 came and went — and Ottawa and Washington published statements about the same meeting that don’t say the same thing. Minister LeBlanc says the Agreement remains fully in force until 2036 and can be renewed at any time (Global Affairs Canada). Ambassador Greer says the United States did not agree to renew, and the Agreement is not renewed (USTR).

Both are accurate. Together they say what neither statement leads with: the 16-year extension was not agreed, and CUSMA enters an annual-review phase with a fixed 2036 horizon. If you claim CUSMA preference, this week’s question is what that does to the file behind the claim.

§ 3 — The Connection

Two treaty statements and a verification list, landing on one origin file

Global Affairs Canada — the treaty beat, Ottawa’s read. Minister LeBlanc’s July 1 statement “reaffirmed Canada’s unwavering support for the CUSMA and its renewal,” says the Agreement “remains fully in force until 2036 and can be renewed at any time for another 16-year period,” and seeks “substantive discussions” on “sectoral tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, autos and lumber” (GAC statement).

USTR — the same meeting, the other direction. Ambassador Greer’s statement says the United States “did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form,” that “the USMCA is not renewed,” and that the Agreement “remains in force pending resolution of these issues or until the Agreement’s termination” (USTR statement).

CBSA — the enforcement beat, on its own clock. The agency’s semi-annual verification-priorities refresh is due no later than July 7 — the day this issue lands (CBSA) — and its 2026–27 Departmental Plan names origin verifications under free-trade agreements among its focus areas (CBSA 2026–27 Plan). None of these three documents references the others. They land on the same object: the origin documentation behind a CUSMA-preference claim, which now has to hold up under an annual-review horizon rather than a renewal-assumed one.

§ 4 — The Numbers

What a preference claim is worth — and what the dollar just did to it

The FX leg is already in your costs. The Bank of Canada’s daily average put the US dollar at 1.4201 USDCAD on July 3, against roughly 1.40 in mid-June (BoC daily rates). On a US$100,000 monthly payable, that is CA$142,010 versus CA$140,000 — about CA$2,000 a month of landed-cost drift before any tariff question enters.

The origin leg is the contingent one. Take the same US$100,000 a month claiming CUSMA preference against an illustrative 6% MFN rate. At 1.4201, value for duty runs about CA$142,000 a month, so the preference is worth roughly CA$8,500 a month — call it CA$102,000 a year — duty you do not pay for as long as the claim holds. If an origin verification finds the documentation doesn’t support the claim, that duty becomes payable across the open reassessment period, with interest — and at 1.42 the CAD figure is larger than the same failure would have cost at mid-June’s rate. Nothing about the preference math changed on July 1. The scrutiny horizon around it did.

§ 5 — The Broader Picture

A preference under annual review is a contingent item, not a filing

The assumption that quietly sat under most CUSMA-preference decisions — renewal was expected, so the preference is durable — is now an annual question with a 2036 backstop. And the review runs in crowded company: LeBlanc’s statement names steel, aluminum, autos and lumber sectoral tariffs as the discussions Canada is seeking, while USTR’s Section 301 forced-labour track — in which Canada is one of the named economies, with a proposed additional duty on the table — ran its written-comment deadline July 6 and opens its hearing July 7 (USTR). For a CPA reading a balance sheet, the translation is straightforward: a duty preference under annual review is a contingent exposure to size and monitor, not a formality to assume — and the origin file is the asset that supports it.

§ 6 — The Action

Open the origin file behind your biggest preference claim

StatCan’s May merchandise-trade numbers also land Tuesday morning — next week’s dashboard reads them against the 1.42 dollar.

§ 7 — The Question

Did your 2026 planning assume renewal?

A note on framing: Fully Briefed synthesizes publicly available government source material and translates it into financial terms. This is education, not legal, customs, or tax advice, and nothing here predicts how the CUSMA annual reviews will proceed, what CBSA’s refreshed priorities will contain, or any USTR outcome. For your specific origin determination, tariff classification, or CARM coding, work with your customs broker on the classification and origin inputs.

Trevor Ryhorchuk, CPA, CIA, PMP

Fully Briefed — Canadian Trade Intelligence
tradeintel.fullybriefed.ca